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climate hazards and climate impacts. Climate hazards are weather patterns and events, including extreme storm events, extreme temperatures, and flooding. Climate impacts are the physical and social components which experience the impacts of these climate hazards including water and soil, agriculture, invasive species, climate migration, and social justice. This report will focus on the flooding hazard within the Town of Aurora due to its being identified as a high-risk hazard by the ECMHMP and because of the significance of the watershed to the Town. Flooding was also identified as a primary concern amongst residents and stakeholders in the community engagement process (refer to Section VI). Hazard concerns were ranked in the ECMHMP based on “an assessment of the likelihood of occurrence for each hazard, along with its potential impacts on people, property, and the economy as well as community capability and changing future conditions… each municipality ranked the degree of risk to each hazard as it pertains to their community.” In this subsection, the seven other climate hazards and impacts identified by the Aurora CSC Task Force are detailed. Flooding is described in greater detail in Subsection B. i. Climate Hazard: Extreme Weather Events Extreme weather events include floods, blizzards, droughts, wildfires, and heatwaves. While these events are very different in terms of their physical impacts and conditions, they are all influenced by the water cycle, which itself is heavily affected by climate change – specifically, trends in temperature. While “climate change” can often refer to the same thing as “global warming,” i.e., an observable increase in average temperature over time, the term “global warming” often gives the incorrect impression that the effects of climate change will always be warm, such as increased wildfires and heatwaves. However, the water cycle occurs not only within seasons or a year, but also over multiple years and even decades; therefore, its effects are not always warm. Blizzards, increased snowfall, extreme winds, tornadoes, etc., are affected by the water cycle as well. Snowfall is not expected to decrease in Erie County. Winter storms are anticipated to be shorter yet more intense. Precipitation is expected to increase by up to 17% in the region by the 2080s 1, with more precipitation in the fall and summer than the current rates. Additionally, due to the proximity to Lake Erie, Erie County is located within an “extreme wind hazard area”. Wind speeds are projected to increase during the winter and summer with increases in the temperature. Wind direction is shifting to more northeasterly winds, which will likely increase damage to infrastructure, houses, and trees. Off-season storms are also expected to increase. Since the year 1990, the frequency of tornadoes has been increasing in the area as well. Significant impacts to substrate (pavement, asphalt, etc.) and agricultural soils are expected due to heavier precipitation (erosion). Additionally, the cycle of freezing and thawing can potentially create a substantial loss of crops, soil quality, and prime farmland. ii. Climate Hazard: Extreme Temperatures Erie County and the Town of Aurora are and will continue to be exposed to extreme temperatures, both hot and cold. Extreme temperature events will most affect certain groups of people: • The elderly, who are less able to withstand extreme temperatures due to health conditions and, more often than younger people, lack access to emergency shelters; • Infants and children up to 4 years of age; 1 Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki. 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, New York. 109