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The ECMHMP identifies several flood-prone areas in the Town of Aurora. These include properties along Cazenovia Creek – both the East Branch, south of the Village of East Aurora, and the West Branch, south of West Falls. Tannery Brook is also a flood-prone area in the Town of Aurora, although most of the length of the brook is located within the Village of East Aurora. Per the ECMHMP, “Tannery Brook has continuously seen major flooding and properties along the waterbody have and continue to be vulnerable to frequent flooding around the creek, especially the nursing home…Frequent flooding events have resulted in damages to residential properties. These properties have been repetitively flooded as documented by paid NFIP claims.” According to the ECMHMP, the Town of Aurora includes 21,739 acres in total land area. Of the total land area, 645 acres, or 3.0%, are within the 1% annual chance flood zone (Zone A). There are 745 total acres within the 0.2% annual chance flood zone, or 3.4% of total land area. There are 0 acres in a Zone V area, since there are no coasts within the Town of Aurora. IV. Physical Vulnerability Assessment Physical vulnerability is the susceptibility of physical infrastructure to potential and actual climate hazards and extreme events. Climate change has and will continue to damage or disrupt physical infrastructure, and the Town of Aurora will need to plan to enhance the resiliency of these systems. In the ECMHMP, hazards are identified and ranked based on a formula including the likelihood of occurrence for each hazard, its potential impacts on people, property, and the economy, the existing level of resiliency among the community, and projected environmental changes due to climate change. The following physical vulnerability assessment (PVA) will be a summary of the conclusions drawn in the ECMHMP and the Town of Aurora’s Climate Smart Communities website. For purposes of better understanding the PVA, the following terms must be defined: • Exposure refers to whether an asset or system is located in an area that is likely to experience the effects of a climate change hazard now or in the future. • Sensitivity refers to how an asset or system fares when exposed to a climate hazard. • Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of an asset or system to adjust to actual or expected climate stresses. Overall, the adaptive capacity of the Town of Aurora to flooding is considered medium: capacity may exist, but it is not used or could use some improvement. A. Property/Building Damage According to the ECMHMP, “exposure to the flood hazard includes those buildings located in the flood zone or those that are built downstream in other flood inundation areas such as dam failure inundation areas. Potential damage is the modeled loss that could occur to the exposed inventory measured by the structural and content replacement cost value.” In the Town of Aurora, the general building stock includes 4,280 buildings with a total estimated replacement cost value (RCV) of nearly $2.5 billion. There are approximately 18 buildings (0.4% of all buildings) within the 1% chance flood risk area (Zone A), with a total RCV of approximately $13.5 million (0.5% of the total RCV). Additionally, there are 47 buildings in the 0.2% chance flood risk area (1.1% of all buildings), with a total RCV of approximately $35.5 million (1.4% of the total RCV). 115