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VII. Conclusion A. Summary of Findings Flooding events were identified by the Town of Aurora Climate Smart Task Force and the Erie County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (2022) as the primary climate hazard for the town. Climate change will affect the Town of Aurora in many ways, including increased extreme weather events and temperatures, changes to water and soil, impacts on agricultural productivity, increased prevalence of disruptive invasive species, the potential increase in population due to climate migration, and a cascading effect of social justice issues. However, flooding is the most top-of-mind issue for the Town of Aurora currently because of several flooding instances in recent history and because of the prominence of Cazenovia Creek and Tannery Brook in the Town’s geography. Climate change is anticipated to increase the number and severity of flood events because increasing temperatures intensify the water cycle, thus increasing total precipitation and the intensity of rainfall. The risk of flooding is quantified by FEMA, which has published FIRM panels illustrating the areas of the Town most at risk of the 1% chance annual flood and the 0.2% chance annual flood. Of the total land area, 645 acres, or 3.0%, are within the 1% annual chance flood zone (Zone AE). There are 745 total acres within the 0.2% annual chance flood zone, or 3.4% of total land area. Floods have already caused destruction and losses of residential properties in the Town of Aurora and have the potential to cause substantial losses to other types of properties, with the monetary value of loss estimated in the millions of dollars. Flooding can also cause infrastructure damage, such as to roads and utilities, which can isolate residents during a flood event and leave them without critical lifelines. Further, floods can cause substantial economic loss, in terms of disrupting the typical functioning of commercial activity, but also the loss of tax base and the cost of cleanup after a flood. Floods also pose substantial risks to public health and safety, the most obvious being injury and loss of life, but also secondary impacts such as molding, allergies, respiratory illnesses, pollution, lack of sanitation, mosquitoes, and more. All these impacts can affect land use in substantial ways, which is of special interest to the Town of Aurora because its residents highly value the Town’s agricultural land and open spaces. Behind all physical vulnerabilities of the Town of Aurora to a flood event, there are over 13,000 residents (Town of Aurora plus Village of East Aurora) who could have their lives and livelihoods negatively affected. Although climate change effects, including floods, will impact all people, they will not impact all people equally. By conducting a social vulnerability assessment, it was determined that the Town of Aurora is generally wealthy, highly educated, and mostly White with high accessibility to resources. Therefore, for the most part, the residents of the town have lower sensitivity to climate hazards. The most vulnerable populations in Aurora are likely therefore the elderly, especially those that live alone; children; the immunocompromised and disabled; and people who work in high-exposure industries such as agriculture, construction, and transportation. These groups of people are most at risk of not being able to evacuate in case of an emergency; be stranded or isolated during a flood event; have lowered or no access to necessary medical care; be more likely to contract illnesses or be impacted by negative health issues; have their protection and safety in the hands of others; and possibly have high exposure to the frontlines or aftermath of a flood event. The Town and its stakeholders should plan on how to specifically address these populations in case of emergency. 126