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there is an approximately 26% chance of flooding within any given 30 consecutive years – the length of most mortgages in the United States. The regulations of the NFIP are based on the 100-year flood. Residents of communities that participate in the NFIP are automatically eligible for the program. Further, any business or home with a government-backed mortgage that is in the 100-year floodplain is required by law to have flood insurance. Floods are defined in a leveled system based on the use of hydrographs, which are measured by gages located throughout Erie County. Hydrographs show how a water level changes over time at a specific location. The following terms must be defined for clarification purposes: • Action Stage - the stage which, when reached by a rising stream, lake, or reservoir, represents the level where the NWS or a partner/user needs to take some type of mitigation action in preparation for possible significant hydrologic activity. • Minor Flooding - minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat. • Moderate Flooding - some inundation of structures and roads near stream. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations. • Major Flooding - extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations. • Record Flooding - flooding which equals or exceeds the highest stage or discharge at a given site during the period of record keeping. ii. Risk of Flooding due to Climate Change Per the Town of Aurora’s Climate Smart Communities website: “Increasing air temperatures intensify the water cycle by increasing evaporation and precipitation. This can cause an increase in rain totals during events with longer dry periods in between those events….The amount of rainfall in a 100-year event is projected to increase, while the number of years between such storms is projected to decrease.” According to the NYS ClimAID Report’s Updated Climate Projections Report (2014), the projected increase in precipitation for ClimAID Region 1, which includes Erie County, is 2% to 12% by the 2050s and 1 percent to 17 percent by the 2080s. The baseline precipitation for this region, calculated between 1971 and 2000, is 34.0 in. annually, meaning the potential increase could be to between 34.7 in. and 38.1 in. annually by the 2050s and up to 39.8 in annually by the 2080s. As the Updated Climate Projects Report states, “although the increase in total annual precipitation is projected to be relatively small, larger increases are projected in the frequency of extreme precipitation events (defined as events with more than 1, 2, or 4 inches of rainfall) at daily timescales.” The increase in heavy downpour has and will continue to affect drinking water, increase the risk of riverine flooding, flood key transportation systems, and increase delays and hazards related to extreme weather events. iii. National Flood Insurance Program Summary The Town of Aurora has been a participating community in the NFIP since 1974. The NFIP Floodplain Administrator is the Town of Aurora’s Code Enforcement Officer. Other Building Department personnel also help fulfill this role. The role of the NFIP Floodplain Administrator is to reduce the risk of flooding, such as by adopting and enforcing higher floodplain management standards than NFIP minimum 113