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Comprehensive Plan 13 Population Trends As of 2020, the estimated population for the Town of Aurora was 13,934, this includes the Village of East Fig. 1: Town of Aurora Population Trends Aurora (5,998). Historically, from 1900 to 1970, the Town experienced an increase of 10% or more every decade with the greatest shift in population occurring from 1950 (9,271) to 1960 (12,888). During this time the Town saw a 39% population increase. Since 2000, the population of the Town has remained essentially the same. So, while the Town is certainly not growing like it was throughout the 20th century, it is not experiencing a decline in its overall population either. Across Erie County, the population was 954,236 as of 2020 and experienced a population increase of 0.4% since 2000. During this time, the Town of Concord saw a -2.4% decline while the Town of Orchard Park saw a 7.4% increase. Projecting out to 2040, the County is expected to see a decline of 0.9%. Similar trends are expected for Aurora (-1.0%) and Orchard Park (-1.2%) while Concord is expected to see an increase (+2.4%). % Change ‘00- Projected % Projected Population Location 2000 2010 2020 ’20 Change ‘20-’40 2040 Town of Aurora 13,996 13,782 13,943 -0.6% -1.0% 13,810 Town of Concord 8,518 8,494 8,316 -2.4% 2.4% 8,513 Town of Orchard 27,637 29,054 29,686 7.4% -1.2% 29,323 Park Erie County 950,265 919,040 954,236 0.4% -0.9% 945,891 Age Trends Under 18/% Under 65/% Median Location While the population size of Aurora is not Pop. Pop. Age changing significantly, its median age is. As of Town of 2022, the median age of an Aurora resident is 50.3, 2,911/21% 3,190/23% 50.3 Aurora an increase of 22% since 2000. Comparatively, the median age across Erie County is 40 while the Town of 5,978/20.1% 7,199/24.3% 47.2 Concord median ages for the Towns of Orchard Park and Concord are 47.2 and 46.9 respectively. Town of 1,718/20.7% 1,785/21.5% 46.9 Orchard Park The 45-64 age group is the largest age group in Aurora, making up 33.8% of the total population. Erie County 189,431/19.9% 188,291/19.7% 40.0 However, following the Town’s median age trends, the over 65 age group is expected to become the largest age group by 2028 (27.8%). By 2028, Fig. 2: Town of Aurora Age Trends the over 65 age group is expected to see a 55.3% increase in their population compared to 2010 proportions. The 20-34 age group is expected to see a 33.8% increase during this time too; however, it will only represent 14.6% of the total population. Aurora’s median age is rising faster than the rest of the County’s, yet the comparison communities (Orchard Park & Concord) have similar shares of residents under 18 and over 65. Taken altogether, Aurora is an aging community, albeit not significantly more than other southtown communities in Erie County. Moving forward, the Town should plan to accommodate its aging population as the 65+ age group will be the dominant population by 2028. The Town must also plan to welcome new young families to help offset the population’s aging.